Wednesday, September 18, 2019

Technical Analysis: BTC/USD March, 26, 2018

Weekly

Here is a link to the decorated chart used in this analysis: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/IPOwDibF-Marked-Bitcoin-Chart/

So far, the weekly has not been able to lose the support that was gained in November to give the all time high.

is showing some potential for a rally back up to $16,200 again. But it’s important to note this is a weekly chart, it took 5 candles (weeks) to go from $16k to $6k, meaning that a rally back up to that price would take a similar amount of time. With that being said, it took almost the same amount of time on the previous rally from November. So bulls shouldn’t be looking for the price to shoot to the moon over night. But in a sense, if we hold this support it shouldn’t take very long…

Daily

The daily is a little rough looking; although we’re coming into a half-decent support here at $7830. Although the daily doesn’t look very bullish at the moment, the bullish accumulation in the weekly could be enough to give a big first touch reaction off this support.

Here’s the ideal scenario:

Price pops at first touch of this support, gains $9k, and then starts its merry journey back up to $12,000 and everyone holds hands and sings.

But in reality, we need to see some accumulation first because there isn’t much too bullish about this daily time frame picture.

The change happens first in the smaller time frame. Meaning currently I don’t see why the price isn’t going to just dump right through to the $6940 support, especially to suck in sellers to create liquidity. IF the we’re going to get a pop off this daily level, there will need to be a bullish confirmation and then we’ll need to see the price gain and hold the $8252 support.

A. is highlighted for context, as this is… pretty much the most important level in this entire chart because it’s the support that was gained to give the all time high. It’s a lot of TA “mumbojumbo” but what it translates to in plain English is this level attracts A LOT of buyers. And since it did so in the move we’re retracing, it will again. That’s why the candles to the left of the one in the image open and close at the same level that lines up the the far left support from November.

4 Hour

This is where things start to show a little more detail, helping give us an understanding of what the price is actually doing. The lines in the image below are the same two supports from the daily time frame, except now that we’re looking within the daily candles can see a couple doji’s and a lot of repeated touches at this level (highlighted yellow circles). Currently, this looks kind of alright for the bulls.

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If  is going to see the start of a rally here, it’s going to take some time. I can’t see how it would just shoot up from here, it should pop, test what was lost, come back to test what was gained, hold that support, and then continue higher. So it could take some time…

1 Hour

As of writing this, we’re apparently getting the big pop off that daily level. In this 1H chart I’ve kept the same daily levels, and the highlighted touches and dojis from the 4Hour chart above. The only new levels I’ve added are untested leg starts from the move down (areas the price should get smacked down from and cause a little bit of a fight), and the major support that was lost in the current move down. I’ve also highlighted an area of consolidation, which can be considered as a range. But in a bigger time frame it’ll only be a bunch of dojis, showing another area big of support.

If this 1H can close above the $8180 support, we should only pull back a little bit to what was recently gained, holding that will push the price into pre-rally mode.

15 Minute

Now, this isn’t really important, because by the time you read this we’ll be way past here… but what the 15 minute tells you is the detail of the bigger time frames. The little guy with the blue arrow, that doji is the sole reason the price got a little smack here. More importantly, the price needs to stay above the congestion below it, or it’ll go back to test the low… and the reaction shouldn’t be so pretty the second time.

All of the “chop” or congestion to the left, on the way down should put up a bit of a fight if we see them.

In order for a rally to work,  needs to test, and exhaust everything that was lost while holding what was gained. There is nothing short and sweet about being long right now, aside from it’s an ideal entry point if you’re looking for a long term buy and hold position.

If I were to be buying here, I wouldn’t be 100%. I would be stacking a position, while waiting for confirmation of either support holding, or a new low to be set and wait for another setup.

Here is a link to the decorated chart used in this analysis: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/IPOwDibF-Marked-Bitcoin-Chart/

 

Disclaimer: Technical Analysis is speculative, and a lot of people call it it hocus-pocus. Regardless of whether anything here makes sense, this post is not investment advice, and BTCNN if not responsible for your trading decisions.

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Please trade at your own risk.

 

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