Bitcoin, the original cryptocurrency asset, can be closer to $2,000 than of getting out the bear market. This according to an article in Forbes that compares different models that predict the price of the crypto asset. Coincidently the vision that focuses more on the demand side of the equation is the most pessimistic one. So, Bitcoin bears are in for a long run.
Value And Price Of Bitcoin
The fear and market price has been a constant matter of investigation by cryptocurrency traders and economists. But, being bitcoin a new kind of asset, it is very difficult to calculate this following existing models of cal. However, not knowing either side of the equation, bitcoin bears are all in, and shorters are happy with this.
Bitcoin is trading at a little more than $4,2K at the time I am writing this article, having lost more than 70% of its value since last December, when it reached $20K. Despite this, bitcoin is still one of the hottest technologies out there, a real case of digital money. This indicates that there is a difference between the value of bitcoin and its price in the market.
Price depends heavily on a series of factors that are determined instantly by the market conditions. However, value models offer an insight into how price can be determined by taking a limited number of this factors and inputting these into a fixed model.
Bitcoin Bears Likely To Keep It Up
According to an article published by Forbes, Greg Giordano ran three simulations for three different models that could help to define the pricing of bitcoin for the next month. The results were inconclusive.
First, they ran the Wheatley’s model, that puts the weight of the bitcoin price on the demand side of the equation. As demand for payments and for trading has stagnated due to prices, this value came at a fairly low $1,242.64.
Secondly, they ran the Hayes model, a computational simulation that puts the weight of the price in the supply part of the equation. This gave a result of $10,179.25. This because of mining and breakeven price of this activity.
As everyone knows, mining is a process that consumes a lot of energy and depending on that price, it could get pretty expensive. Break-even prices were calculated by Tom Lee to be near the $6K level, so miners are losing money right now.
The third simulation that they ran is a Market simulation, that takes both supply and demand into account. It came with an astounding number: $10,845.77. However, the belief among traders is that the bitcoin bears will be in control for this holiday season.